BCSSS

International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics

2nd Edition, as published by Charles François 2004 Presented by the Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science Vienna for public access.

About

The International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics was first edited and published by the system scientist Charles François in 1997. The online version that is provided here was based on the 2nd edition in 2004. It was uploaded and gifted to the center by ASC president Michael Lissack in 2019; the BCSSS purchased the rights for the re-publication of this volume in 200?. In 2018, the original editor expressed his wish to pass on the stewardship over the maintenance and further development of the encyclopedia to the Bertalanffy Center. In the future, the BCSSS seeks to further develop the encyclopedia by open collaboration within the systems sciences. Until the center has found and been able to implement an adequate technical solution for this, the static website is made accessible for the benefit of public scholarship and education.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

EXTREME VALUE THEORY 2)

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A forecasting set of models that can be used to predict the like hood of extremely rare events.

The theory is based on distribution curves (Gumbel, Fréchet and Wei bull curves) which give "a precise quantitative statement of the otherwise vague notion that the more extreme the event, the less likely it is to happen" (R. MATTHEWS, 1996, p. 37-38).

The theory has been developed by R. SMITH (Univ. of North Carolina) and L.DE HAAN (Erasmus University, Rotterdam).

It offers no real possibility of precise predictions but is useful for determining the most extreme possible events in accordance with statistics of lesser similar events in the past, on a long time scale.

Dutch experts have found for example that the maximum known historical flood due to a North Sea storm in Holland has topped 4 meters above sea level (in 1570). It has thus been estimated that walls of 5 meters upon the sea level should meet a criterion of a once in 10 000 years flood. (see GOLDENFELD and KADANOFF, 1999, p. 87)

Other examples are volcanic eruptions, big earthquakes, crashes in stock markets, epidemics in populations, hurricanes in the Caribean zone, the "EI Niño" events in the Pacific Ocean. Intermittence generally implies sudden paroxystic changes or an epochal reversal inbetween variable but long relaxation periods. It is related to synergetic processes, power laws, and dissipative structuration, all of these probably governed by great fluctuations of energy inputs, or their cumulative long term effects (Ibid, p.87-89).

→ Numbers (Prime); Periodicity; Term (short-, medium-, long-)

Categories

  • 1) General information
  • 2) Methodology or model
  • 3) Epistemology, ontology and semantics
  • 4) Human sciences
  • 5) Discipline oriented

Publisher

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science(2020).

To cite this page, please use the following information:

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science (2020). Title of the entry. In Charles François (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics (2). Retrieved from www.systemspedia.org/[full/url]

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